Acol at BBO
|
Acol at BBO
|
|
|
|
| Dealer
North E-W Vulnerable |
||||
 A K 6 K 6 5 3 A 9 4 3
2 5 |
||||
| J 10 5
A Q J 7 2 K 8 6 4 3 |
9 8 4 3 2 10 J 10 5 J 9 8 6
|
|||
| Q 7 9 8 4 Q 7 A K Q 10 7 2
|
| West 1eyedjack Pass Pass |
North boris3161 1 2 3NT |
East jnk1942 Pass Pass All Pass |
South ssukaye 2 3 |
| 1eyedjack
writes - It is relatively easy to find interesting hands where a player erred or could have done better. Personally I would rather, opportunity permitting, propose hands where someone has played particularly well, and Boris3161 acquitted himself admirably. Dealer opens at white v red, IMP scoring, and ends in 3N after an uncontested auction, that might perhaps not be a unanimous route: 1D-2C-2D-3D-3N I think that as responder I would just blast 3N over the 2D rebid. It is not without risk, but I feel that the risk of 3D being passed when 3N is making is greater. That said, although not my personal choice the auction was reasonable and there may be nuances to their style of which I am unaware. You now have to play this on a Spade lead. You are a trick or two short of 9 tricks in tops, and the best prospect for developing extras is obviously the Club suit. There are good prospects for taking six Club tricks without loss. However, the suit has a hole in it and entries are sparse. The Diamond Q may turn out to be an entry, but that is speculative. The Spade Q is a certain entry and, while it risks blocking the Spade suit it seems right to avoid the kneejerk temptation to win trick 1 in the short Spade suit. So you win trick 1 in hand. First hurdle negotiated. Time to set about establishing the Clubs. You lead your singleton Club, East follows low, and now it is crunch time. Finesse the ten or play them out from the top? It is seriously tempting to play them from the top. If Clubs break 3-3 or the Jx drops doubleton then you have 6 top Club tricks without risking a losing finesse, and you also increase your overall chances if the J singleton offside drops. On any 4-2 Club break you can establish a 5th Club trick even if the J is guarded. This is the line that maximises your expected number of Club tricks and may be the preferred play at MP (perhaps not clearcut even then?) Securing the contract is the priority at IMP, and you only require 5 Club tricks to achieve that. Time to consider the possibility of guarding against a bad Club break. If Clubs break 6-0, then East (who has already followed low) is the one with 6 of them. Finessing the 10 works on that occasion. You are still not out of the woods. You have to give up on a long Club for the 9th trick, but you have good chances of setting up a 9th trick in a red suit, which odds dramatically reduce if you had risen with the Club Ace (then needing another red suit trick to make up the quota). If Clubs break 5-1, it makes no difference what you do if East has followed with singleton low (prospects are bleak). If West has singleton Jack then you should be playing from the top. If West has singleton low then finesse brings home the bacon. There are 5 small Clubs and only one J. West is 5 times more likely to have a small singleton than singleton J. If Clubs break 5-1, then the odds favour the finesse. We turn now to the 4-2 break. Superficially it appears to matter not what you do: you can afford to lose one trick and you will still make 5 Clubs. And it certainly does not matter if East has Jx or West has Jxxx. However, if East has Jxxx or West has Jx then you would really rather pick up the suit without loss. If you succeed in setting up a 5th Club but at the cost of losing a trick in the process, then that blockage in the Spade suit could yet come back to haunt you. An alert defence will attack your red suit entries to declarer's hand before the Spades are unblocked, and you may end up a trick short again. You fear a diamond lead through the Q more than you fear a Heart lead through the K, so East is the danger hand. Furthermore, East is twice as likely to hold Jxxx than West to hold Jx, reinforcing your inclination to finesse. All in all, the finesse looks to be the right play, and Boris3161 was duly rewarded when Jxxx turned up onside. My first inclination at hand end (I was West) was that he had misplayed the hand and got lucky. But it was well done. As a rider, I would tentatively suggest that the finesse is better even at MP scoring. Playing the Clubs from the top only gives you a 51.7% chance of 6 Club tricks, and a long term expectation of 5.4 Club tricks. The finesse gives you a 91.2% chance of at least 5 Club tricks, and some pairs may not be in 3N 1eyedjack Click here for the .lin file |